Drier Outlook, but Flash Flooding and Extreme Heat Loom: Hydromet Cautions Farmers and Coastal Communities

By Antonio Dey | HGP Nightly News |

GEORGETOWN, GUYANA — While Guyana is projected to experience predominantly drier-than-normal weather patterns through the final quarter of 2026, coastal residents and agricultural operators are being cautioned that sudden, high-intensity rainfall events and localized flash flooding remain a significant threat.

The advisory was delivered by Specialist Meteorologist Komalchand Dhiram during the 21st National Climate Outlook Forum, hosted by the Hydro-Meteorological Service at the Herdmanston Lodge in Queenstown, Georgetown.

Hydromet specialists emphasized that while seasonal projections indicate depressed aggregate rainfall, intense short-duration downpours coupled with high tides could easily overwhelm low-lying drainage channels. Concurrently, technical experts warned that prolonged heat stress, rather than immediate water scarcity, presents the most pressing operational risk to national livestock, poultry survival, and public health heading toward year-end.

Rainfall Thresholds: 25mm to 50mm Downpours Still Threaten Coastal Inundation

Presenting the primary climatological modeling for October, November, and December, Dhiram noted that the transition period into the secondary wet season will still feature sharp, concentrated downpours:

• Coastal Rain Windows: Coastal administrative zones are projected to experience between three to four distinct days where precipitation reaches or surpasses the critical 25-millimeter (mm) threshold.
• Flooding Triggers: Dhiram explained that localized precipitation between 25 mm and 50 mm within short operational windows remains the primary metric monitored by hydrologists, as these volumes regularly exceed coastal gravity-drainage capacity during high-tide lockouts.
• Conservancy Depletion and Critical Levels: Addressing irrigation capacity, Dhiram reported that existing water storage levels remain manageable, with baseline soil moisture expected to sustain ground crops into late November. However, the replenishment of key agricultural conservancies—such as the East Demerara Water Conservancy (EDWC) and Boerasirie—depends heavily on year-end rains.
• Critical Water Thresholds: Citing water level modeling, Dhiram noted historical declines from 58 feet down to 56 feet, warning that a drop to 54–55 feet represents a critical operating threshold where strict water rationing protocols would have to be triggered if rainfall fails to restore levels back to 56–57 feet.

“October, November, December along the coast of Guyana we can experience anywhere about 3–4 days [with] 25 millimetres of rainfall… forecast,” Dhiram stated during his technical briefing.

Heat Stress: Severe Threat to Livestock and Public Health

Beyond water storage dynamics, the forum highlighted extreme ambient temperatures as the chief operational threat confronting Guyana’s rural productive base.

Chief Hydrometeorological Officer Dr. Garvin Cummings warned that extreme heat waves pose direct mortality risks to poultry and livestock operations, regardless of whether animals have access to drinking water:

• Poultry and Livestock Vulnerability: Broiler chickens, dairy and beef cattle, and small ruminants like sheep are particularly susceptible to heat exhaustion. Prolonged periods of elevated temperatures suppress feed intake, reduce daily weight gain, depress egg and milk production, and increase mortality rates.
• Fluctuation and Microclimate: Dr. Cummings stressed that the severity of animal distress depends on temperature stability and the absence of nighttime cooling, urging farmers to optimize pen ventilation, install shading, and adjust feeding schedules.
• Public Health Risks: Dhiram echoed these concerns from a human health perspective, warning that prolonged heat waves heighten the risks of acute dehydration, heat stroke, and secondary hygiene complications should dry spells constrain community potable water availability.

“It is difficult to say at times what would be the rainfall deficit. We know in September it is always hot and dry,” Dr. Cummings explained. “The concern is not access to water; the problem is the temperatures and how the chickens, cows, sheep will survive with that sort of temperature.”

“With regards to health, greater heat stress and dehydration risk… prolonged dry conditions may affect water availability and hygiene,” Dhiram added.

The Hydro-Meteorological Service urged farmers, regional drainage engineers, and municipal authorities to continuously monitor 72-hour weather advisories, service coastal drainage sluices, and implement heat-mitigation protocols across farms to minimize agricultural losses over the coming months.