By Marvin Cato | HGP Nightly News |
Opposition Member of Parliament and APNU Parliamentary Lead Dr. Terrence Campbell has warned that Guyana risks falling victim to the economic phenomenon known as “Dutch Disease” if the government fails to urgently diversify the economy beyond its heavy reliance on oil revenues.
Dr. Campbell said the administration has consistently fallen short in effectively managing Guyana’s rapidly expanding oil wealth, cautioning that without prudent planning, the country could face long-term structural challenges.
Dutch Disease occurs when rapid growth in a resource-rich sector—such as oil and gas—causes other key sectors like agriculture, manufacturing and services to decline. As oil revenues rise, the national currency often strengthens, making non-oil exports less competitive internationally and increasing dependence on a single commodity.
According to Dr. Campbell, this over-reliance leaves the economy dangerously exposed to fluctuations in global oil prices and undermines innovation, job creation and sustainable growth in other industries.
“There is no comprehensive approach to economic development or development planning that aims to diversify our economy and prepare us for a post-oil economy,” Dr. Campbell said.
Speaking during a recent press briefing, the Shadow Minister of Finance emphasized that while the oil sector has driven impressive headline growth, its dominance masks underlying weaknesses in the broader economy. He pointed out that much of the recent expansion in the non-oil economy is closely linked to construction activity fueled by oil-related investments.
“Without our oil economy, a lot of that will not take place. When you strip construction out of the ten percent non-oil economic growth, the rest of the economy is really not doing well,” he stated.
Dr. Campbell argued that this dependence underscores the absence of a clear, long-term strategy to nurture sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, technology and value-added industries that could sustain the economy once oil production declines.
Addressing concerns about youth unemployment, the opposition MP noted that not all university graduates can be absorbed into the oil and gas sector. He explained that beyond academic qualifications, most oil companies require specialized technical certifications and experience, limiting opportunities for many young professionals.
“The government has failed to diversify the economy beyond the oil sector, and it will only hire so many people and no more,” Dr. Campbell warned.
He stressed that diversification is essential to expand employment opportunities, foster resilience, and ensure that economic growth benefits a wider cross-section of Guyanese society.
According to the government’s Mid-Year Report, overall economic growth was estimated at 7.5 percent at the end of the first half of the year, with the non-oil sector growing by 13.8 percent for the fifth consecutive year. As a result, Guyana’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 15.2 percent overall and 13.9 percent for the non-oil economy.
Despite these figures, Dr. Campbell maintains that without deliberate and sustained diversification efforts, Guyana’s economy remains vulnerable and ill-prepared for a post-oil future.
